The Battle for Europe...

By: Ryan Noormohamed

At the start of the season, a man whose footballing opinion I trust told me that the "Battle for Europe" will be between either Man United and Arsenal/Chelsea or Real Madrid and Barcelona. His prediction didn't necessarily ring true for the former as both Arsenal and Chelsea's title and cup challenges went out with a bang and a whimper respectively, but the prediction with regards to Real Madrid and Barcelona remains truthful.

For those who are not aware, last week's Champions League results dictated a run of fixtures that sees Real Madrid play Barcelona a total of 4 times in 18 days. Yes, folks, this is our childhood fantasies come to life. Christmas only comes once a year, but we have a total of 4 Clasicos awaiting us in a span of less than 3 weeks. Two of the greatest and most successful names in the game, with the two best players in the world in their rosters, going head to head 4 times to determine the almost certain winners of the UEFA Champions League, Copa Del Rey, and the Spanish La Liga.

Real Madrid's Cristiano Ronaldo vs Barcelona's Lionel Messi

In addition to a historical and socio-political rivalry that doesn't need to be detailed here, we have a clash of two distinct footballing philosophies. Barcelona plays a possession game unlike any ever seen, with some of the greatest midfielders to grace the sport providing service for World Cup winning striker David Villa and the reigning World Player of the Year Lionel Messi. Barca's secret lies in La Masia, their academy which spawned 8 of their typical starting 11, and some of the world's best players. Real Madrid, on the other hand, undertook a massive rebuilding project that ushered in the new Galactico era, bringing in the world's best in players like Xabi Alonso, Kaka, Karim Benzema, and Cristiano Ronaldo, as well as manager Jose Mourinho, arguably the best manager in the world. They were brought together for one unified purpose-to conquer Europe and to knock Barcelona from their throne.

Their previous attempt to do so resulted in a 5-0 thrashing at the hands of a well motivated Barcelona side. Mourinho's team set out to play Barcelona's game against them, and ended up being utterly destroyed by one of the greatest demonstrations of skill and quality that any team has ever assembled.

Now, Real Madrid has not one but four chances for revenge in the coming 18 days. The question is: will they succeed?

Squad Depth

Xavi of Barcelona

Barca may have the best starting XI in world football, but with four major games against their biggest rivals in a short span, it may come down to who has the better bench.

The Edge: Real Madrid
Madrid will most likely play their 4-2-3-1 formation that they've stuck with for the majority of the season. When a 65million pound signing in Kaka is warming their bench, and other players like Adebayor, Higuain, and Benzema will have to compete for places on the starting XI, its easily suggestible that Real will have better impact from the bench. Over the course of the 4 games, however, one can expect Mourinho to try new tactics and play fresher players.

Ability To Play the Game the Way they want it played:
It is worth noting that by this, I mean that I believe that the winner of this 4-game series will be the team that controls the game to their favored liking on the pitch. Or, rather, the team whose tactics and team selections are most effective.


Neither of these teams are short on playing ability, but the fact that Lionel Messi, Xavi, and Iniesta are irrepressible for Barcelona means that:

The Edge: Barcelona
I go with Barcelona here because, though Cristiano Ronaldo has put up significant goalscoring and assisting numbers for Madrid, their over-reliance on him to do the deed is keeping the others in the team from shining, whereas one cannot say the same about Barcelona. Barca's possession game dictates a high number of chances being created, and Messi's role in this strategy is not only to score goals but to assist a high number as well (47 goals and 20 assists in 47 games at the time of writing). The real proof to this lies in the numbers that other forwards on the team have:

David Villa: 21 goals 7 assists in 41 games
Pedro: 20 goals 7 assists in 45 games

Compared to Real Madrid's forwards:

Cristiano Ronaldo: 41 goals 12 assists in 46 games
Karim Benzema: 21 goals 4 assists in 42 games
Gonzalo Higuain (half season due to injury...): 10 goals 4 assists in 21 games
Emmanuel Adebayor (half season due to loan): 5 goals 0 assists in 16 games
Angel Di Maria: 9 goals 13 assists in 40 games

This would suggest that while Ronaldo and Benzema have found the net many times, they rely more on their midfield to do the creative work rather than they themselves work at bringing others into the game. Messi, on the other hand, has provided 20 direct assists this season, mostly for both Pedro and Villa who are having 20+ goal seasons themselves. Itself a remarkable feat for any forward in any league in the world.

When comparing midfielders, however, it is difficult to find a statistic that adequately shows a dominance of one side over the other. If football were to count "second-assists" in the manner that Ice Hockey does in the NHL, we could determine the statistical dominance of the midfield more precisely. However, one statistic that does ring true for determining the quality of a midfield is pass completion. Here, it is clear that Barcelona is dominant. In the early season matchup between these teams, Barcelona completed 600 passes to Madrid's 110, which reflected well in the 5-0 scoreline.

Psychological Factors:


Real Madrid has lost the past 5 Clasicos in a row, but Mourinho will surely have prepared his team for this penultimate series of matches.

Keeping in mind that though one match is played on neutral territory (The Copa Del Rey final, held at the Mestalla), Madrid have 2 games at home. This very distinct home field advantage could be significant as the series comes to an end.

The Edge: Real Madrid
I give the edge to Madrid here because they have almost nothing to lose. Here, the footballing Gods have given them four opportunities to defeat Barcelona, with each victory being seen as a major upset in the eyes of the world. Just one victory for Madrid could see the Barcelona gravy train come to a screeching halt, while the pressure is on Barca as the favorites to make sure that they retain their favored status.

The Mourinho Factor:

Real Madrid Manager Jose Mourinho

Jose Mourinho, the ex-Porto, Chelsea, and Inter Milan manager, is now the current manager of Real Madrid. He, whose career began as a translator for Barcelona in the 1990s, has an established Champions League record and is thought of as one of the greatest managers in the world. Mourinho is well known as a shrewd tactician and man-manager, and it was his Inter Milan team last year that found a way to defeat Barcelona over a two-legged tie. For this reason, we can't suggest that squads and tactics alone will decide the outcome of this series.

Mourinho was hired to oust Barcelona from their position as the world's best team, and this 4-game series is his ideal chance to do so. One manager has succeeded in shutting down Barcelona's possession and passing game, and he is the man to do it again.

In Conclusion:

I expect Real Madrid to play defensively and on the counterattack, while I expect Barcelona to dominate possession at both the home and away games. I believe that in a one match final, Barca will win. However, for any team to win all four matches would be impossible, and Madrid will definitely be looking for revenge after losing the Copa Del Rey to Barcelona, hence why I believe that Madrid will win the following match either home or away. However, in the final leg of the tie, all predictions go out the window. Both teams will have a shot at winning and will give their all, and we may indeed see some surprises come our way. As for La Liga, no matter the result, Barcelona's lead is too large to be overcome.

Its all in the Nature of the game. Its called a clasico for a reason, because every game quite literally is a classic. We, the beloved spectators, are truly blessed to have not one, but four classic matches coming our way soon enough.